The global oil and gas market is currently witnessing a dynamic shift in the trade flow of many refinery products. While the dip in crude oil prices is forcing major suppliers to look toward diversifying their oil and gas portfolios to include refinery products and petrochemicals, the success of shale gas and oil in the US has created self-sufficiency and is pushing the market toward increased exports. Demand, driven by Asian countries, and implementation of regulations related to sulphur and other pollutants, especially in the developed economies, are further factors affecting supply and demand and the long-term product trade flows across the globe.
Frost & Sullivan's industry docket, Global Oil Markets Outlook, 2017, examines the factors that will affect the global market for refinery products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG, fuel oil, and naphtha. Current supply and demand across North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East have been analyzed. Economic, technological, and regulatory factors were taken into consideration to forecast the future demand, supply and trade flow of major refinery products.
"While gasoline demand is likely to be driven by emerging markets, developed markets will see a drop in traditional fuel use as they move toward responsible consumption, fuel-efficient automotive and electric vehicles," said Frost & Sullivan Visionary Science Consultant David Anil.Further trends driving global oil market growth include:
- North America and the Middle East dominating gasoline export and targeting Latin America, Africa, and Asia with surplus;
- Asia driving diesel demand growth due to the boom in the industrial sector;
- Increased shale gas production in North America leading to lower costs and availability of raw materials;
- Demand for jet fuel in China due to increase in low-cost airlines; and
- High demand for LPG in Asia due to use as residential fuel and chemical feedstock.
"While Asia is expected to increase refining capacity through 2020, especially in India and China, and become a dominant refiner, lack of competitiveness in Western European refiners and capacity constraints in Africa and Latin America is pushing the refining industry to look toward other regions," noted Anil.